Meat+Poultry - August 2020 - 84
F O O D S E R V I C E U P D AT E
Pandemic
RECOVERY
The foodservice
landscape could look
different after life
returns to 'normal'
BY SA M DA N L E Y | m e a t p o u l t r y @ s o s l a n d.c o m
T
"We expect
recovery to
take 8 to 10
quarters
during the
current crisis."
- AMIT SHARMA
MEAT+ POULTRY | 08.20 | www.meatpoultry.com
last three years, nearly two times faster than
the 3.6% CAGR for full-service restaurants.
The growth gap could widen more, Rabobank
said, with limited-service restaurant sales
growing at a 3.5% CAGR over the next three
years, compared to a -2.5% CAGR for fullservice restaurants.
"A bigger and better digital presence,
online ordering, personalized offerings
and promotions, improving nutritional
profiles and a trade-down to value-oriented
offerings were key drivers of limited-service
growth," Sharma said. "We expect many of
these drivers to be accelerated in the postpandemic environment."
Lingering dine-in constraints and health and
wellness concerns, particularly among older
cohorts over-indexed to full-service restaurants,
will contribute to the growth gap, he added.
Off-premises sales, which already were
growing four times faster than dine-in sales, will
be the biggest winner. Delivery, drive-thru and
takeout orders have doubled and even tripled
from pre-COVID-19 levels and are expected to
account for more than 100% of restaurants sales
growth over the next three years.
WavebreakMediaMicro - stock.adobe.com
84
he biggest impact of the coronavirus
(COVID-19) on US foodservice is likely
past, according to Rabobank. Sales
declines are expected to moderate, improving
from a 50% decline at the peak of the pandemic
to a 12% to 14% decline over the next year.
Sales are expected to return to prepandemic levels by mid- to late-2022, assuming
no COVID-19 relapse this fall.
"Full foodservice sales recovery took
approximately seven quarters during the
Great Recession," said Amit Sharma, senior
consumer foods analyst at Rabobank. "We
expect recovery to take eight to 10 quarters
during the current crisis."
The pace and slope of recovery will
be uneven across different segments, he
added, with limited-service, off-premises
and chain restaurants emerging as winners.
Other long-term impacts include greater
M&A opportunities, faster ramp-up of digital
capabilities beyond online ordering and
delivery, and a deeper focus on automation and
ghost kitchens.
Limited-service restaurant sales, including
QSRs, have increased at a 6.9% CAGR over the
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