Meat+Poultry - August 2018 - 14

WA S H I N G T O N

Losing on pork
price pressure for both hams and
The US Meat Export Federation
picnics could result in industry losses
(USMEF) estimates the US pork
of $425 million for July-December
industry could lose more than $300
2018 and $835 million over the next 12
million for the remainder of 2018 and
months."
$600 million over the next 12 months
In general, the report states, new
on a decline in ham primal value
import
duties can result in:
caused by Mexican tariffs that have
*
decreased
export volumes as
been placed on US pork products.
US
products
are
priced out of the
Mexico implemented retaliatory
marketplace;
tariffs on imports of most US pork
* lower prices and margins for
products in response to US tariffs
exported items as the trade adjusts to
on aluminum and steel. On June 5,
the new (higher) duties;
the tariff rate on chilled and frozen
* lower livestock prices in response
pork muscle cuts increased to 10
to the decrease in meat prices; and;
percent from zero. The tariff will
* longer-term losses in market
increase again to 20 percent on July
share due to trading partners' desire to
5, effectively wiping out the North
diversify away from the US.
American Free Trade (NAFTA)
Mexico already has
benefit, USMEF said.
established a duty-free tariff
"Given the growth
rate quota for 350,000
in US production
Canada will be
metric tons of chilled
and already large US
the most likely
and frozen pork that will
consumption, it is
beneficiary
of US-Mexico
be open through the end
likely that product not
trade tensions.
of 2018, with 97 percent
going to Mexico will be
of the volume allocated
absorbed in other export
to companies that imported
markets as well as in the
chilled and frozen pork products in
domestic market, at lower
2017. USMEF said import licenses are
prices," USMEF said in its report. "The
granted on a first-come-first-served
drop in the ham primal value could
basis, but the organization said US
translate into industry losses of more
companies have been unsuccessful
than $300 million for the remainder of
in applying for import licenses for US
this year and roughly $600 million over
the next 12 months. The added negative pork products.
"USMEF's understanding is that the
duty-free quota is specifically aimed
at Mexico's processing industry and

retailers are not able to purchase pork
at zero duty (beyond Canadian and
Chilean pork, where the potential for
supply growth is limited)," according
to the report.
Canada will be the most likely
beneficiary of US-Mexico trade
tensions. The European Union also
could benefit as roughly 60 slaughter
plants are approved to export to
Mexico with others waiting for
approval. Transportation and logistical
challenges will make it difficult for
Mexican processors to switch to
Canadian and European pork, USMEF
said, but increased Canadian and
European supplies of pork could result
in US market share dropping to 75
percent from the current 90 percent in
the second half of 2018.
"This would result in a decrease in
US exports of roughly 10,000 mt per
month or more than 60,000 mt for the
rest of 2018," USMEF said. "If unit values
hold at first-quarter levels, the drop in
export value to Mexico would be more
than $100 million over six months."
The US accounts for 90 percent of
Mexico's imports of chilled and frozen
pork with Canada supplying the other
10 percent, according to USMEF. In
2017, Mexico's imports of US pork
items subject to the new duties totaled
713,500 metric tons valued at $1.25
billion and accounted for 80 percent of
Mexico's imports from the US.
M + P S TA FF | m e a t p o u l t r y @s o s l a n d.c o m

14

MEAT+ POULTRY | 08.18 | www.meatpoultry.com

Ronnie Chua/stock.adobe.com

"The drop in the ham primal value could translate
into industry losses of more than $300 million for
the remainder of this year." - USMEF


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Meat+Poultry - August 2018

http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_07_11
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2019_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2018_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2018_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2018_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2017_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2016_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2015_01_01_mp
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2014_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2013_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2012_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2011_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2010_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2010_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2010_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/mp/2010_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2010_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2009_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2008_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2007_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2006_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2005_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_11_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_10_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_09_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_08_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_07_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_06_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_05_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_04_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_03_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_02_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2004_01_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2003_12_01
http://digital.meatpoultry.com/sosland/mp/2003_10_01
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