Meat + Poultry - January 2004 - 36

Trading

the world. By year-end 2002, broiler exports were up more than 50
percent to the Caribbean, 50 percent to Africa, and 68 percent to the
Middle East. This trend has continued through 2003 and is expected
to continue into 2004.
Export growth to Russia will remain limited under Russia's poultry import quota. Exports to Mexico are forecast to grow in 2004
as demand for raw materials in the food-processing sector continues to be strong. Although the safeguard agreement on chicken
leg quarters with Mexico allows for only 1-percent growth, overall
growth in exports to Mexico is expected to increase. The U.S. is the
largest supplier of broiler meat to Mexico.
The competition
Brazil, Thailand and China will provide U.S. processors with competition in the coming years. Brazilian broiler meat exports for 2004 are
forecast at 1.8 million tons, a 4-percent increase from U.S.D.A.'s 2003
estimate. The increase in exports is also attributed to growth in nontraditional markets. Like the U.S., Brazil has benefited from the emergence of new export markets such as Bulgaria, South Africa, and Hong
Kong. Export growth will be fueled by production growth in 2004.
Broiler production is expected to grow 4 percent in 2004 as a result of strong demand in export markets as well as increased domestic
demand. Domestic demand for broiler meat should strengthen in 2004
among Brazil's large base of middle to lower-income consumers.
Thailand's broiler meat exports for 2004 are forecast to increase
6 percent from the estimated 2003 level to 530,000 tons, due mainly
to diversification of Thai broiler meat. Historically, Thai broiler exports
consisted of basic boneless parts, however the Thai broiler industry has shifted focus in recent years toward high-quality processed
products. Currently, Thailand supplies primarily value-added parts

(semi-cooked and cooked products) to Japan, while it exports frozen
parts to the E.U.
Since the E.U.'s detection of a veterinary drug (nitrofuran) in frozen products in March 2002, the Thai government has continued to
implement strict production guidelines regulating on-farm drug use
and monitoring of residue levels. The Thai government and producers have fought to modernize their broiler sector and improve the
quality of their broiler meat, which should maintain the competitiveness of Thai broiler exports.
Chinese exports for 2004 are forecast at 440,000 tons, a 5-percent
increase over the 2003 estimate. China's broiler exports in 2004 will
be boosted by resumed access in Japan, China's largest broiler export market. Approximately 70 percent of China's broiler exports have
historically been to Japan. Much of China's broiler exports are actually
product of the U.S. and have been processed or de-boned and re-exported as Chinese product. However, in 2002 Japan banned the importation of fresh and frozen Chinese broiler meat because of avian influenza concerns, but allowed the importation of cooked product. These
restrictions were lifted in August 2003, allowing China to resume shipments of fresh and frozen broiler meat. Broiler production in 2004 is
forecast to increase 3 percent to 10 million tons, and will likely move
M&P
into domestic consumption before exports.
This report was excerpted from U.S.D.A.'s Foreign
Agricultural Service's Livestock and poultry: World markets
and trade report.
We would like to hear from you-
your comments and questions about this article are welcome.
E-mail the author at: meat&poultry@sosland.com

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